Effects of rising commodity prices on manufactured exports: the case of Brazil

This analysis seeks to establish whether the increase in the income of Brazil's trading partners, benefited by the rise in commodity prices in the 2000s, opened a space to stimulate exports of industrialized goods of Brazilian origin. It is hypothesized that there is a positive relationship between Brazilian exports of manufactured goods and the variation in the income of its trading partners due to the greater dynamism of its natural resource exports. A two-stage hierarchical statistical model is employed, in which a panel data structure is used to estimate a cut-off data model. To the best of our knowledge, this strategy has not been used in works devoted to the study of the behavior of Brazilian manufactured exports in the 2000s, especially in relation to the economic boom caused by the super-cycle of rising commodity prices.

Automated summary

This analysis examines whether the increase in income of Brazil's trading partners, resulting from rising commodity prices in the 2000s, has facilitated the export of Brazilian manufactured goods. It proposes a positive relationship between Brazilian exports of manufactured goods and the income variation of its trading partners, due to the greater dynamism of its natural resource exports. The study uses a two-stage hierarchical statistical model, employing panel data structure to estimate a cut-off data model. This research strategy has not been used in previous works on Brazilian manufactured exports in the 2000s, particularly in relation to the economic boom caused by the super-cycle of rising commodity prices.