Environmental drivers of decadal change of a mangrove forest in the North coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico

Mangrove forests provide important ecosystem services, but are under constant pressure from natural, anthropogenic, and climate change related disturbances. Environmental drivers on mangrove change at large spatial scales, other than sea level rise, are not well understood. In here, we use spatially explicit methods to identify the main environmental drivers of mangrove coverage change over a decade in the landscape of the North coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. A post-supervised classification approach on seven SPOT 5 multispectral satellite images was used to construct thematic maps of mangrove coverage between 2004 and 2014. A linear regression model between the thematic maps was performed to estimate the mangrove coverage change rate per pixel. Climate surfaces for annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature, and annual mean and cumulative precipitation for the region were calculated for the period 1980-2009 using data obtained from the National Meteorological Service. The effect of environmental variables on mangrove coverage change rates was assessed with a boosted generalized additive model (boosted GAM). The lowest and highest overall accuracy obtained for the time series thematic maps were 87.14% (Kappa = 0.78), and 97.5% (Kappa = 0.95), respectively. The most influential environmental variables on mangrove coverage change were annual cumulative precipitation (21%), and annual maximum temperature (9%). Current climate change scenarios for the region predict an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, intensifying environmental stress on this ecosystem. Therefore, adequate management strategies are fundamental to help maintain the mangrove forest under changing environmental conditions.