Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages 87-95Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TSTE.2015.2472963
Keywords
Error analysis; forecasting; Gaussian process (GP); wind power
Categories
Funding
- Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC)
- U.K.-China Science Bridge Project
- EPSRC [EP/L001063/1, EP/G042594/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/G042594/1, EP/L001063/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Although various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local moving window technique is used in Gaussian process (GP) to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local GP employs less measurement data with faster and better predictions of wind power from two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while it is more likely to generate Gaussian-istributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.
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