Probabilistic Decision Making for the Bulk Power System Optimal Topology Control

Power system topology control through transmission line switching for economic gains and reliability benefits has been recently considered in day to day operations. This paper introduces a probabilistic formulation for a more efficient application of topology control strategies in real world scenarios with anticipated increase in the presence of highly variable renewable generation and uncertain loads. Such uncertainties are modeled via the point estimation method embedded into the dc optimal power flow-based formulations for optimal switching solutions. Hourly and daily advantages of the proposed probabilistic framework, compared with the conventional operations and deterministic formulations, are discussed. As the anticipated economic gains would increase through sequential implementation of several switching actions, a new probabilistic decision making approach to identify the optimal number of switching actions at each hour is also proposed. This decision support tool uses the probabilistic reliability cost/value analytics in which not only the financial benefits, but also the costs of reliability risks, are taken into account. The approach is tested through various scenarios on the modified IEEE 118-bus test system, with and without renewables integration, and the results revealed its applicability and efficiency.