First Trimester Noninvasive Prenatal Diagnosis: A Computational Intelligence Approach

The objective of this study is to examine the potential value of using machine learning techniques such as artificial neural network (ANN) schemes for the noninvasive estimation, at 11-13 weeks of gestation, the risk for euploidy, trisomy 21 (T21), and other chromosomal aneuploidies (O.C.A.), from suitable sonographic, biochemical markers, and other relevant data. A database(1) consisted of 51,208 singleton pregnancy cases, while undergoing first trimester screening for aneuploidies has been used for the building, training, and verification of the proposed method. From all the data collected for each case from the mother and the fetus, the following 9 are considered by the collaborating obstetricians as the most relevant to the problem in question: maternal age, previous pregnancy with T21, fetal crown-rump length, serum free beta-hCG in multiples of the median (MoM), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A in MoM, nuchal translucency thickness, nasal bone, tricuspid flow, and ductus venosus flow. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set that was used to guide the development of various ANN schemes, support vector machines, and k-nearest neighbor models. An evaluation set used to determine the performance of the developed systems. The evaluation set, totally unknown to the proposed system, contained 16,898 cases of euploidy fetuses, 129 cases of T21, and 76 cases of O.C.A. The best results were obtained by the ANN system, which identified correctly all T21 cases, i.e., 0% false negative rate (FNR) and 96.1% of euploidies, i.e., 3.9% false positive rate (FPR), meaning that no child would have been born with T21 if only that 3.9% of all pregnancies had been sent for invasive testing. The aim of this work is to produce a practical tool for the obstetrician which will ideally provide 0% FNR and to recommend the minimum possible number of cases for further testing such as invasive. In conclusion, it was demonstrated that ANN schemes can provide an effective early screening for fetal aneuploidies at a low FPR with results that compare favorably to those of existing systems.