Agricultural market integration preserves future global water resources

Traded agricultural goods redistribute water, virtually, around the world to satisfy unmet demands while limiting excess water extraction in importing regions. However, gaps remain in our understanding of how alternative international trade regimes may alter agricultural water demands, locally and virtually. Here, we explore global agricultural water savings and virtual water trade impacts of such trade regimes under reference and low-carbon scenarios using an integrated and water-constrained human-earth system model. We find that varying agricultural market integration significantly alters regional water withdrawals while substantially affecting global nonrenewable groundwater withdrawals. These results highlight the suscepti-bility of water resources, across regions, to varying degrees of market integration. Understanding how trade integration may evolve in the future can assist in the integrated management of water resources to allow for enhanced food security and potential amelioration of water stress.

Automated summary

This study examines the impacts of different trade regimes on global agricultural water usage and virtual water trade using an integrated model. The results show that the degree of agricultural market integration significantly affects regional water withdrawals and has a substantial impact on global nonrenewable groundwater withdrawals. These findings highlight the importance of considering water resources in trade integration and provide insights for integrated water resource management.