Siting marine protected areas based on habitat quality and extent provides the greatest benefit to spatially structured metapopulations

Connectivity and its role in the persistence and sustainability of marine metapopulations are attracting increased attention from the scientific community and coastal resource managers. Whether protection should prioritize the connectivity structure or demographic characteristics of a given patch is still unclear. We design a three-stage population model to analyze the relative importance of sources, sinks, quality and extent of juvenile and adult habitat, and node centralities (eigenvector, degree, closeness, and betweenness) as a basis for prioritizing sites. We use a logistic-type stage-structured model to describe the local dynamics of a population with a sessile adult stage and network models to elucidate propagule-exchange dynamics. Our results show that the coupled states of habitat extent and quality, which determine population carrying capacity, are good criteria for protection strategy. Protecting sites on the basis of sources, sinks, or other centrality measures of connectivity becomes optimal only in limited situations, that is, when larval production is not dependent on the adult population. Our findings are robust to a diverse set of larval pathway structures and levels of larval retention, which indicates that the network topology may not be as important as carrying capacity in determining the fate of the metapopulation. Protecting extensive, good quality habitat can help achieve both conservation and fisheries objectives.