Journal
ECOSPHERE
Volume 7, Issue 5, Pages -Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1344
Keywords
Baltic Sea; Finnish Archipelago Sea; Gulf of Finland; oil spill; oil spill risk management; spatial risk assessment; threatened habitats; threatened species
Categories
Funding
- Central Baltic INTERREG IV A Programme
- Centre for Economic Development, Transport
- Environment of Southwest Finland (KAS-ELY)
- City of Kotka
- City of Porvoo
- Eastern Uusimaa Regional Emergency Services
- University of Tartu
- Investment Centre of Estonia
- Regional Council of Paijat-Hame
- Centrum Balticum Foundation's Protection Fund for the Archipelago Sea
- Lloyd's Register Foundation
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Large-scale oil spills can have adverse effects on biodiversity in coastal areas where maritime oil transportation is intense. In this article we conducted a spatial risk assessment to study the risk that potential tanker accidents pose to threatened habitat types and species living in the northern Baltic Sea, which has witnessed a rapid increase in maritime oil transportation within the past two decades. We applied a probabilistic method, which combines three components: a Bayesian network describing tanker accidents and uncertainties related to them, probabilistic maps showing the movement of oil, and a database of threatened species and habitats in the area. The results suggest that spatial risk posed by oil spills varies across the area, and does not correspond, for example, to the frequency of accidents in a given area. The relative risk is highest for seashore meadows, which is important to take into account when managing these habitats. Our analysis underlines the importance of a thorough risk assessment, which is not only based solely on one or two specific factors such as accident probabilities or the trajectories of spilled oil but also contains as broad a view of the consequences as possible. We believe that the probabilistic methodology applied in the study will be of high interest to people who have to cope with uncertainties typical for environmental risk assessment and management.
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