Health and economic benefits of reducing air pollution embodied in GBA's green and low-carbon development

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau (GBA) metropolitan of China is pioneering in realizing environment-friendly development. However, health and economic burden attributed to air pollution under different climate and end-of-pipe control scenarios has not been evaluated. This study applies the IMED|CGE, WRF-Chem and IMED|HEL models assess PM2.5- and O3-associated health and economic consequences. Results demonstrate that PM2.5 concentration in 2050 will drop by 12.9% and 56.4% under 1.5 degrees C target and end-of-pipe technology, respectively, contributing to 7.7% and 35.6% decreases in mortality and 67.3% and 97.9% reductions in morbidity. The O3 concentration will decrease by 8.3% and 13.3%, respectively, contributing to 10.4% and 15.2% drops in mortality and 10.8% and 15.8% declines in morbidity. Besides, the health loss saved by alleviating PM2.5 and O3 pollution using end-of-pipe technologies is remarkable, amounting to 31.0 and 9.3 billion USD in 2050, respectively. It suggests that O3 pollution in GBA is difficult to be addressed and higher levels of end-of-pipe technology progress should be deployed to obtain significant co-benefits.

Automated summary

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau (GBA) metropolitan in China is a leader in environmentally friendly development. However, the health and economic burden caused by air pollution under different climate and end-of-pipe control scenarios has not been evaluated. This study uses various models to assess the health and economic consequences of PM2.5 and O3 pollution. The results show that by implementing end-of-pipe technology and a 1.5 degrees C target, the PM2.5 concentration is expected to decrease by 12.9% and 56.4% by 2050, leading to a reduction in mortality of 7.7% and 35.6%, and a decrease in morbidity of 67.3% and 97.9%. The O3 concentration will decrease by 8.3% and 13.3%, resulting in a drop in mortality of 10.4% and 15.2%, and a decline in morbidity of 10.8% and 15.8%. Additionally, the health loss saved by mitigating PM2.5 and O3 pollution using end-of-pipe technologies is significant, amounting to 31.0 and 9.3 billion USD in 2050, respectively. This suggests that addressing O3 pollution in the GBA is challenging and higher levels of end-of-pipe technology progress should be implemented to achieve significant co-benefits.