A behavioural analysis of post-pandemic modality profiles for non-commuting trips in the greater Toronto Area

As restrictions implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19 are being lifted and daily life is returning to normal, there is a need to understand whether changes brought about by the pandemic will persist in the postpandemic period. In particular, understanding how individuals' modal preferences are expected to evolve can help the development of policies that anticipate future needs and improve resilience towards future pandemics. Using web-based survey data collected in July 2021, this paper presents a behavioural analysis into post-COVID19 modality profiles among residents of the Greater Toronto Area. The focus of this study is non-commuting trips, which play an important role in individuals' overall wellbeing, especially during the pandemic. Modality profiles were identified for three periods: pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic using latent class analysis. A multinomial logistic regression model was also developed to investigate the determinants of post-pandemic profile membership. Among significant factors are socio-economic attributes and mobility tool ownership. Transition analysis between profiles suggests that a return to public transit to pre-pandemic levels can be expected. The pandemic also resulted in the increased prominence of private vehicles and active modes, which will also remain post-pandemic. In contrast, ride-sourcing and taxi services are likely to play a diminished role after the pandemic. Policies that promote the use of active modes are important in maintaining the increased role of walking and cycling and potentially attracting car users post-pandemic.

Automated summary

This paper analyzes the post-COVID19 modal preferences among residents of the Greater Toronto Area. The study finds that a return to pre-pandemic levels of public transit can be expected, while private vehicles and active modes will continue to increase post-pandemic. Ride-sourcing and taxi services are likely to play a diminished role. Policies promoting active modes are crucial in maintaining the increased role of walking and cycling and potentially attracting car users post-pandemic.