Dynamic implications of the biological link between bovine milk and meat production for operationalizing the planetary health diet

The EAT-Lancet planetary health diet (PHD) provides guidelines on a global scale and calls for red meat consumption to be halved. Operational PHD guidelines at country level have yet to be determined. Here we argue that the biological link between milk and bovine-meat production must be considered when operationalizing the globally calculated PHD to national contexts. Using a stylized computer simulation model rooted in a food system approach, we explore the impact of dietary scenarios on milk and bovine-meat production and show that ignoring this biological link can lead to substantial imbalances between national dietary guidelines and production outcomes and potentially lead to food waste. Furthermore, we assess current national dietary guidelines in Europe and find that most disregard this biological link and are incompatible with the PHD, with implications for policymakers and consumers to consider when adapting the PHD in national contexts. A scenario analysis shows that disregarding the links between bovine milk and meat production could lead to imbalances between national dietary guidelines and production outcomes, leading to unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions and potentially to food waste.

Automated summary

The EAT-Lancet planetary health diet calls for reducing red meat consumption globally, but guidelines for implementing it at the national level are yet to be determined. This study explores the impact of dietary scenarios on milk and bovine-meat production and highlights the importance of considering the biological link between them. Ignoring this link can lead to imbalances between national dietary guidelines and production outcomes, potentially leading to food waste and unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions. The study also found that current national dietary guidelines in Europe disregard this link and are incompatible with the planetary health diet.