Estimation of Water Quality Parameters in Lake Erie from MERIS Using Linear Mixed Effect Models

Linear Mixed Effect (LME) models are applied to the CoastColour atmospherically-corrected Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) reflectance, L2R full resolution product, to derive chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration and Secchi disk depth (SDD) in Lake Erie, which is considered as a Case II water (i.e., turbid and productive). A LME model considers the correlation that exists in the field measurements which have been performed repeatedly in space and time. In this study, models are developed based on the relation between the logarithmic scale of the water quality parameters and band ratios: B07:665 nm to B09:708.75 nm for log(10)chl-a and B06:620 nm to B04:510 nm for log(10)SDD. Cross validation is performed on the models. The results show good performance of the models, with Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) and Mean Bias Errors (MBE) of 0.31 and 0.018 for log(10)chl-a, and 0.19 and 0.006 for log(10)SDD, respectively. The models are then applied to a time series of MERIS images acquired over Lake Erie from 2004-2012 to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of the water quality parameters. Produced maps reveal distinct monthly patterns for different regions of Lake Erie that are in agreement with known biogeochemical properties of the lake. The Detroit River and Maumee River carry sediments and nutrients to the shallow western basin. Hence, the shallow western basin of Lake Erie experiences the most intense algal blooms and the highest turbidity compared to the other sections of the lake. Maumee Bay, Sandusky Bay, Rondeau Bay and Long Point Bay are estimated to have prolonged intense algal bloom.