Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 120, Issue 47, Pages -Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2206227120
Keywords
socio-technical transitions; system destabilisation; system decline; system phase
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This paper discusses the fate of established systems in the face of potential destabilization and decline, focusing on the flipside of innovation. By examining the dismantling of electric tramways in France, it explores the role of destabilization, decline, and phase-out in policy and practice efforts, and proposes a framework based on destabilization mechanisms.
Addressing sustainability challenges requires fundamental transformations in electricity, heat, mobility, and agri-food systems. To do so, research and policy efforts tend to emphasise the importance of fostering new, more sustainable systems through innovation. Instead, this paper focuses explicitly on the flipside of innovation: The fate of established systems faced with their potential destabilisation and decline. It is argued that any transition in consumption-production systems involves a combination of innovation (something new emerges) and destabilisation (something old is being challenged). To examine the role of destabilisation, decline, and phase-out for policy and practice efforts, this paper advances conceptual and empirical contributions. Conceptually, it elaborates a framework based on three interacting destabilisation mechanisms: The build-up of pressures, strategic responses by central system actors, and changing commitments to reproductive activities. Empirically, it draws on the historic dismantling of electric tramways in France. The decline of the tramway in France followed a gradual erosion pattern resulting from the long-term degradation of technical, political, and economic conditions, which was accelerated by a relatively rapid phase-out programme. A discussion section offers insights on the temporality of destabilisation, the context of phase-out decisions, and the interaction of destabilisation and innovation processes.
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