Prognostic factors and novel nomograms for overall survival and cancer specific survival of malignant ovarian cancer patients with bone metastasis: A SEER-based study

ObjectiveOvarian cancer (OC) is a frequent and fatal disease in women, and bone metastasis of ovarian cancer (OCBM) leads to a poor survival trend. This study aimed to determine the factors which influence overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of OCBM patients and to develop prognostic predictive models.MethodsData of OCBM patients were stratified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database from 2010 to 2017 and were randomly divided into training and testing datasets (7:3). Prognostic factors were identified by Cox regression analyses and nomograms were then developed. Nomogram models were examined on the discriminative ability and accuracy by calibration plots, Brier score (BS), and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Decision curve analyses (DCA) was used for estimation of the clinical benefit of nomogram models.ResultsGrade, tumor size, tumor metastasis (liver, lung), primary site surgery, chemotherapy, and systemic therapy were realized as independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS, respectively. Agreement between the actual and predicted outcomes was proved by calibration plots. Nomograms performed well in OS and CSS predictions, as shown by area under the ROC curves (AUCs) and BSs for testing dataset as follows: for OS, 3-/6-/12-month AUCs and BSs were 0.778/0.788/0.822 and 19.0/18.5/15.4, respectively; for CSS, 3-/6-/12-month AUCs and BSs were 0.799/0.806/0.832 and 18.1/18.0/15.4, respectively. DCA suggested an agreeable clinical benefit of both nomograms.ConclusionThe nomograms developed for OCBM patients' survival prediction were proved to be accurate, efficient, and clinically beneficial, which were further deployed as web-based calculators to help in clinical decision making and future studies. The study explored prognostic factors for ovarian cancer patients with bone metastasis and developed prediction models with good clinical practicability and interpretability.

Automated summary

This study aimed to identify prognostic factors and develop predictive models for ovarian cancer patients with bone metastasis. The developed nomograms showed good performance in survival prediction and can be used for clinical decision making.