A Multi-Task Learning Based Runoff Forecasting Model for Multi-Scale Chaotic Hydrological Time Series

Accurately predicting runoff is crucial for managing water resources, preventing and mitigating floods, scheduling hydropower plant operations, and protecting the environment. The hydrological dynamic composite system that forms runoff is complex and random, and seemingly random behavior may be caused by nonlinear variables in a simple deterministic system, which poses a challenge to runoff prediction. In this paper, we construct parallel and multi-timescale reservoirs from a chaotic theory perspective to simulate the stochasticity of chaotic systems. We propose a multi-task-based Decomposition-Integration-Prediction (Multi-SDIPC) model for runoff prediction. To validate our research results, we use the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset and compare our proposed model with 10 baseline models. The results show that our model has an average NSE metric of 0.83 and exhibits higher accuracy, better generalization, and greater stability than the other models in multi-step forecasting. Based on our findings, we recommend wider application of the Multi-SDIPC model in different regions of the world for medium or long-term runoff prediction.

Automated summary

In this paper, a multi-taskbased decomposition-integration-prediction (Multi-SDIPC) model is proposed for runoff prediction. The model utilizes parallel and multi-timescale reservoirs to simulate the stochasticity of the runoff system, achieving high accuracy and strong generalization.