Private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro-area

We use a panel of ten euro area member states to examine the link between macro/fiscal risk and private bank deposits relative to Germany. Our main findings are summarised as follows: First, the relationship between relative deposits and macro/fiscal risk factors is not stable over time. Second, the significant time variation characterizing this relationship is driven by aggregate EMUwide macro/fiscal risk conditions. Third, relative deposits in periphery EMU countries are generally more responsive to macro/fiscal risk. Fourth, the ECB's unconventional monetary policy moderated the effect of the global financial and European debt crises on the relationship between relative deposits and macro/fiscal risk. Our empirical findings can inform the ongoing policy debate regarding the completion of the European Banking Union.

Automated summary

The study examines the relationship between macro/fiscal risk and private bank deposits relative to Germany using a panel of ten euro area member states. The findings show that this relationship is not stable over time and is influenced by the overall macro/fiscal risk conditions in the euro area. Deposits in periphery EMU countries are more responsive to macro/fiscal risk, and the unconventional monetary policy of the ECB has moderated the effect of global financial and European debt crises on the relationship between deposits and macro/fiscal risk.