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Summary: Understanding the drivers and peaks of CO2 emissions at the provincial level is crucial for achieving China's goal of peak carbon emissions by 2030. This research combines the Logarithmic Mean Division Index with scenario analysis to explore the drivers and peaks of CO2 emissions in 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2020, taking into account the effects of COVID-19. The results show that the energy structure has replaced energy intensity as the main factor in emission reduction in 2020. The driving mechanisms for CO2 emissions at the provincial level differ from those at the national level. Population restrains CO2 emissions in some provinces, while energy structure increases emissions in others. The role of driving factors varies greatly among provinces. Based on the findings, China's CO2 emissions peak will occur in 2030 and 2025 under baseline and green development scenarios.
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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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Xiaodi Qin et al.
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CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW
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Yisheng Liu et al.
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Junhong Hao et al.
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Ran Yan et al.
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