Experimental results on data analysis algorithms for extracting and interpreting edge feature data for duct tape and textile physical fit examinations

A physical fit is an important observation that can result from the forensic analysis of trace evidence as it conveys a high degree of association between two items. However, physical fit examinations can be time-consuming, and potential bias from analysts may affect judgment. To overcome these shortcomings, a data analysis algorithm using mutual information and a decision tree has been developed to support practitioners in interpreting the evidence. We created these tools using data obtained from physical fit examinations of duct tape and textiles analyzed in previous studies, along with the reasoning behind the analysts' decisions. The relative feature importance is described by material type, enhancing the knowledge base in this field. Compared with the human analysis, the algorithms provided accuracies above 90%, with an improved rate of true positives for most duct tape subsets. Conversely, false positives were observed in high-quality scissor cut (HQ-HT-S) duct tape and textiles. As such, it is advised to use these algorithms in tandem with human analysis. Furthermore, the study evaluated the accuracy of physical fits when only partial sample lengths are available. The results of this investigation indicated that acceptable accuracies for correctly identifying true fits and non-fits occurred when at least 35% of a sample length was present. However, lower accuracies were observed for samples prone to stretching or distortion. Therefore, the models described here can provide a valuable supplementary tool but should not be the sole means of evaluating samples.

Automated summary

Physical fit is a significant observation in forensic analysis of trace evidence, indicating a strong association between two items. To address time-consuming and biased human analysis, a data analysis algorithm incorporating mutual information and decision tree was developed. The algorithm achieved over 90% accuracy and improved true positive rate for most duct tape subsets. However, caution is advised as false positives were observed in certain scenarios. The study also analyzed the accuracy of physical fit identification with partial sample lengths available, showing acceptable results with at least 35% of the sample length present.