What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?

The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review the literature on the value and impact of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports and discuss theoretical issues and empirical evidence. Only a handful of studies provide direct estimates of the welfare benefits of USDA information using a rational expectations framework in storable commodity markets. Most studies examine partial evidence of welfare benefits associated with market response to USDA information. These studies include examinations of the impacts of USDA report releases on cash and futures price volatility and other market dynamics, impacts of report releases on options implied volatility, impacts of unanticipated information in USDA reports, as well as informational value, returns, and survey-based studies. We discuss the methodological and empirical contributions of these studies as well as their shortcomings and potential opportunities for future work.

Automated summary

This paper provides a comprehensive review of literature on the value and impact of USDA reports and discusses theoretical issues and empirical evidence. Most studies focus on partial evidence of market responses to USDA information, including price volatility, implied volatility, and unexpected information. The methodological and empirical contributions of these studies, as well as their limitations and potential opportunities for future research, are discussed.