Journal
SPATIAL STATISTICS
Volume 59, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.spasta.2023.100794
Keywords
Cellular automata; Spatio-temporal statistics; Wildfire modeling
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We propose a Bayesian stochastic cellular automata modeling approach to model the spread of wildfires with uncertainty quantification. The model considers a dynamic neighborhood structure and captures additional spatial information, allowing for accurate prediction of fire states.
We propose a Bayesian stochastic cellular automata modeling approach to model the spread of wildfires with uncertainty quantification. The model considers a dynamic neighborhood structure that allows neighbor states to inform transition probabilities in a multistate categorical model. Additional spatial information is captured by the use of a temporally evolving latent spatio-temporal dynamic process linked to the original spatial domain by spatial basis functions. The Bayesian construction allows for uncertainty quantification associated with each of the predicted fire states. The approach is applied to a heavily instrumented controlled burn.
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