Impacts of changes in climate extremes on wildfire occurrences in China

Climate change has caused more frequent instances of extreme climatic events around the world, being an influential factor on the occurrence of wildfires in China on large scale. However, the impact of changes in extreme climate on the occurrence of wildfires in different climate zones remains unclear. In the present study, 26 extreme climate indices were selected to analyze the thereof relationship with wildfire occurrences from 2005 to 2018 in different regions of China. Wildfires in China primarily occur in the south, with a measurable presence in the north. On an annual scale, the wildfire occurrences in southwestern China show stronger correlations with mean temperature than extreme temperature indices, but show stronger correlations with extreme precipitation indices than the total precipitation. On the contrary, the wildfire occurrences in southeastern China show stronger correlations with the total precipitation than extreme precipitation indices, but show stronger correlations with extreme temperature indices than the mean temperature. In Northeast China, wildfires show a more significant correlation with mean temperature than with any extreme climate indices, indicating a minimal impact from extreme climatic conditions. The fire-climate relationships in the main fire season (January-April) are similar to those in the annual scale. The wildfire occurrences in the southwestern, south-central, and southeastern China, which are located in the same latitudes, were affected by extreme climate indices of different types and on different time scales. Furthermore, we recommend that consecutive dry days (CDD) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) should be considered first when studying the relationship between wildfire occurrence and extreme climate in southwestern and southeastern China respectively.

Automated summary

Climate change has led to an increase in extreme climate events worldwide, which is an influential factor in the occurrence of wildfires in China. However, the impact of changes in extreme climate on wildfires in different climate zones of China is still unclear. This study analyzed the relationship between 26 extreme climate indices and wildfire occurrences in different regions of China from 2005 to 2018. The findings show that wildfire occurrences in different regions are correlated differently with temperature and precipitation. Recommendations for further study on the relationship between wildfire occurrence and extreme climate in specific regions are also provided.