Lower pork consumption and technological change in feed production can reduce the pork supply chain environmental footprint in China

Nearly half of global pork production and consumption occurs in China, but the transition towards intensification is associated with worsening environmental impacts. Here we explore scenarios for implementing structural and technological changes across the pork supply chain to improve environmental sustainability and meet future demand. Following the middle-of-the-road socio-economic pathway (SSP2), we estimate that the environmental footprint from the pork supply chain will increase by similar to 50% from 2017 to 2050. Utilizing technologies that improve feed crop production and manure management could reduce phosphorus and nitrogen losses by three-quarters and one-third, respectively, with modest reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and cropland area. Reducing pork consumption had substantial mitigation potential. Increased feed and pork imports would decrease domestic environmental footprints and meet demand, but increase footprints elsewhere. We conclude that farm-specific technologies and structural adjustments can support the development of rural, small-scale pig farms near cropland and promote circular economy principles.

Automated summary

Nearly half of global pork production and consumption occurs in China, but the intensification of the industry is leading to worsening environmental impacts. This study explores scenarios for implementing structural and technological changes across the pork supply chain to improve sustainability and meet future demand. The findings suggest that utilizing technologies to improve feed crop production and manure management can significantly reduce phosphorus and nitrogen losses, as well as mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the need for cropland area. Furthermore, reducing pork consumption and increasing imports can decrease domestic environmental footprints but may increase footprints in other regions.