Observed changes in stratospheric circulation: decreasing lifetime of N2O, 2005-2021

Using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations of stratospheric nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone, and temperature from 2005 through 2021, we calculate the atmospheric lifetime of N2O to be decreasing at a rate of -2.1 +/- 1.2 %/decade. This decrease is occurring because the N2O abundances in the middle tropical stratosphere, where N2O is photochemically destroyed, are increasing at a faster rate than the bulk N2O in the lower atmosphere. The cause appears to be a more vigorous stratospheric circulation, which models predict to be a result of climate change. If the observed trends in lifetime and implied emissions continue, then the change in N2O over the 21st century will be 27 % less than those projected with a fixed lifetime, and the impact on global warming and ozone depletion will be proportionately lessened. Because global warming is caused in part by N2O, this finding is an example of a negative climate-chemistry feedback.

Automated summary

Using satellite observations from 2005 to 2021, it is found that the atmospheric lifetime of N2O is decreasing at a rate of -2.1 +/- 1.2 %/decade. The cause is believed to be a stronger stratospheric circulation, possibly driven by climate change. If these trends continue, the change in N2O over the 21st century will be significantly reduced.