Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece

Forest fires constitute a major environmental and socioeconomic hazard in the Mediterranean. Weather and climate are among the main factors influencing forest fire potential. As fire danger is expected to increase under changing climate, seasonal forecasting of meteorological conditions conductive to fires is of paramount importance for implementing effective fire prevention policies. The aim of the current study is to provide high-resolution (& SIM;9 km) probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts, utilizing the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) for the Attica region, one of the most fire-prone regions in Greece and the Mediterranean, employing the fifth-generation ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5). Results indicate that, depending on the lead time of the forecast, both the FWI and ISI (Initial Spread Index) present statistically significant high discrimination scores and can be considered reliable in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions. When comparing the year-by-year fire danger predictions with the historical fire occurrence recorded by the Hellenic Fire Service database, both seasonal FWI and ISI forecasts are skilful in identifying years with a high number of fire occurrences. Overall, fire danger and its subcomponents can potentially be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management regarding preparedness and resources allocation.

Automated summary

Forest fires in the Mediterranean region are a significant environmental and socioeconomic hazard. Weather and climate play a crucial role in influencing forest fire potential. This study aims to provide high-resolution seasonal fire danger forecasts using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) for the fire-prone Attica region in Greece. The results suggest that the FWI and ISI (Initial Spread Index) forecasts can effectively predict above-normal fire danger conditions, and they can be utilized by regional authorities for fire prevention management.