Rapid range shifts in African Anopheles mosquitoes over the last century

Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infectious diseases-will be displaced to higher latitudes and elevations. These shifts are frequently projected for the future, but rarely documented in the present day. Here, we use one of the most comprehensive datasets ever compiled by medical entomologists to track the observed range limits of African malaria mosquito vectors (Anopheles spp.) from 1898 to 2016. Using a simple regression approach, we estimate that these species' ranges gained an average of 6.5 m of elevation per year, and the southern limits of their ranges moved polewards 4.7 km per year. These shifts would be consistent with the local velocity of recent climate change, and might help explain the incursion of malaria transmission into new areas over the past few decades. Confirming that climate change underlies these shifts, and applying similar methods to other disease vectors, are important directions for future research.

Automated summary

Facing climate change, tropical species are being displaced to higher latitudes and elevations. This study tracks the observed range limits of African malaria mosquito vectors and finds that their ranges have been shifting towards higher elevations and polewards. These shifts are consistent with recent climate change and may contribute to the spread of malaria into new areas.