A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding

We present a transparent and validated climate-conditioned catastrophe flood model for the UK, that simulates pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood risks at 1 arcsec spatial resolution (similar to 20-25 m). Hazard layers for 10 different return periods are produced over the whole UK for historic, 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2070 conditions using the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate simulations. From these, monetary losses are computed for five specific global warming levels above pre-industrial values (0.6, 1.1, 1.8, 2.5 and 3.3 C-?). The analysis contains a greater level of detail and nuance compared to previous work, and represents our current best understanding of the UK's changing flood risk landscape. Validation against historical national return period flood maps yielded critical success index values of 0.65 and 0.76 for England and Wales, respectively, and maximum water levels for the Carlisle 2005 flood were replicated to a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.41 m without calibration. This level of skill is similar to local modelling with site-specific data. Expected annual damage in 2020 was GBP 730 million, which compares favourably to the observed value of GBP 714 million reported by the Association of British Insurers. Previous UK flood loss estimates based on government data are similar to 3x higher, and lie well outside our modelled loss distribution, which is plausibly centred on the observations. We estimate that UK 1 % annual probability flood losses were similar to 6 % greater for the average climate conditions of 2020 (similar to 1.1 C-? of warming) compared to those of 1990 (similar to 0.6 C-? of warming), and this increase can be kept to around similar to 8 % if all countries' COP26 2030 carbon emission reduction pledges and net zero commitments are implemented in full. Implementing only the COP26 pledges increases UK 1 % annual probability flood losses by 23 % above average 1990 values, and potentially 37 % in a worst case scenario where carbon reduction targets are missed and climate sensitivity is high.

Automated summary

We propose a climate-conditioned catastrophe flood model for the UK, providing hazard layers for different return periods and simulating flood risks under various climate conditions. The model is validated against historical data and accurately predicts flood losses. Our findings suggest that implementing carbon emission reduction pledges can significantly mitigate future flood losses in the UK.