Journal
HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS
Volume 12, Issue 11, Pages 2813-2832Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2016.1205769
Keywords
epidemiology; infectious disease dynamics; mathematical model; systematic review; theoretical models; tuberculosis; vaccines
Categories
Funding
- UK Medical Research Council (MRC) under the LSHTM MRC
- UK Medical Research Council (MRC)
- UK Department for International Development (DFID)
- European Union [MR/J005088/1]
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (TB Modeling and Analysis Consortium) [OPP1084276, OPP1110334]
- UNITAID [4214-LSHTM-Sept15, 8477-0-600]
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated infection
- Medical Research Council [1363977] Funding Source: researchfish
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Mathematical models are useful for assessing the potential epidemiological impact of future tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models estimating the epidemiological impact of future human TB vaccines. PubMed, Embase and WHO Global Health Library were searched, 3-stage manual sifted, and citation- and reference-tracked, identifying 23 papers. An adapted quality assessment tool was developed, with a resulting median study quality score of 20/28. The literature remains divided as to whether vaccines effective pre- or post-infection would provide greatest epidemiological impact. However, all-age or adolescent/adult targeted prevention of disease vaccines achieve greater and more rapid impact than neonatal vaccines. Mass campaigns alongside routine neonatal vaccination can have profound additional impact. Economic evaluations found TB vaccines overwhelmingly cost-effective, particularly when targeted to adolescents/adults. The variability of impact by setting, age group and vaccine characteristics must be accounted for in the development and delivery of future TB vaccines.
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