An extension of mathematical model for severity of rice blast disease

This paper aims to extend the spore dispersal model to the Healthy-Latent-Infectious -Removed (HLIR) epidemic model for assessing the severity of rice blast disease. The model was solved by the Finite Difference Method (FDM). The results of the model were compared to data from the Prachinburi Rice Research Center (PRRC) on the severity of rice blast disease. Because of a small error, the comparison results showed good agreement between the PRRC data and the simulation by looking at the value of Willmott's index of agreement (d). The first bed d was 0.7166, while the second bed d was 0.6421, indicating the model's performance. Furthermore, the optimal parameter, the fraction of spores deposited on the crop, was determined to be 0.173 and 0.016 for beds 1 and 2, respectively. The model can simulate and analyze rice blast outbreaks for educational purposes in future preparedness planning.

Automated summary

This paper extends the spore dispersal model to the HLIR epidemic model for evaluating rice blast disease severity. The model is solved using the FDM. Comparison with data from PRRC shows good agreement, indicated by Willmott's index of agreement (d). The optimal parameter for spores deposited on the crop is determined as 0.173 and 0.016 for two different beds. The model can be used for simulating and analyzing rice blast outbreaks for educational purposes.