Impacts of climate change on wind energy potential in Australasia and South-East Asia following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Wind energy is poised to play a major role in the energy transition. Fluctuations in global atmospheric circulation are expected as a result of climate change, and wind projections based on the most up-to-date scenarios of climate change, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), anticipate significant changes in wind energy potential in many regions; so far, these changes have not been studied in Southeastern Asia and Australasia, a region with notable wind energy potential. This work investigates the evolution of wind power density and its temporal variability considering the latest scenarios of climate change, the SSPs. More specifically, two scenarios are considered, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, corre-sponding to moderate and high emissions, respectively. As many as 18 global climate models are considered and com-pared against past-present data, and those that perform best are retained to build a large multi-model ensemble. The results show that projected changes in mean wind power density at the end of the 21st century are of little significance (typically below 5 %); nevertheless, this value can be far surpassed locally. In certain areas (e.g., Vietnam, Borneo) and seasons, remarkable changes in wind power density (exceeding 150 %) are anticipated. Typically, mean values and temporal variability changes are greater in the high-emissions scenario, however, seasonal variability is projected to be more pronounced in the moderate-emissions scenario. These effects of climate change on wind energy potential must be taken into account in the development of wind power in the region, for they will affect the energy production and, therefore, the economic viability of wind farms - not least in those areas where drastic changes are projected.

Automated summary

According to the latest climate change scenarios, wind energy potential will undergo significant changes, especially in Southeast Asia and Australasia. This study found that although there is little change in average wind power density by the end of the 21st century, there are remarkable changes in certain areas and seasons. The changes are greater in the high emissions scenario, but the seasonal variability is more pronounced in the moderate emissions scenario. These changes will impact the energy production and economic viability of wind farms.