SARS-CoV-2: Air pollution highly correlated to the increase in mortality. The case of Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico

Objectives: To determine whether air pollution or changes in SARS-CoV-2 lineages lead to an increase in mortality.Methods: Descriptive statistics were used to calculate rates of infection (2020-2021). RT-PCR was used to compare viral loads from October 2020 to February 2021. Next -generation sequencing (NGS) (n 1/4 92) was used to examine and phylogenetically map SARS-CoV-2 lineages. A correlative air pollution/temperature index (I) was developed using regression analysis. PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations were analyzed and compared to the mortality.Results: The mortality rate during the last year was-32%. Relative SARS-CoV-2 viral loads increased in December 2020 and January 2021. NGS revealed that approximately 80% of SARS-CoV-2 linages were B.1.243 (33.7%), B1.1.222 (11.2%), B.1.1 (9%), B.1 (7%), B.1.1.159 (7%), and B.1.2 (7%). Two periods were analyzed, the prehigh-and high-mortality periods and no significant lineage differences or new lineages were found. Positive correlations of air pollution/temperature index values with mortality were found for IPM2.5 and IPM10. INO2. ISO2, and ICO but not for O3. Using ICO, we developed a model to predict mortality with an estimated variation of -+/- 5 deaths per day.Conclusion: The mortality rate in the MZG was highly correlated with air pollution indices and not with SARS-CoV-2 lineage.(c) 2023 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Automated summary

The objective of this study was to determine whether air pollution or changes in SARS-CoV-2 lineages lead to an increase in mortality. Descriptive statistics, RT-PCR, and next-generation sequencing were used to analyze infection rates, viral loads, and SARS-CoV-2 lineages. The results showed that mortality rate was correlated with air pollution indices but not with SARS-CoV-2 lineages.