Detecting the main driving force of runoff change in the Beiluo River Basin, China

Understanding the evolution of runoff and identifying the main driving force of hydrological cycle changes are essential for water resource management. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of climate variables and hydrological factors were explored by applying geostatistical analysis and trend analysis in the Beiluo River Basin (BRB), China, and conversions of land use/cover change (LUCC) were assessed using chord diagrams. Contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change were quantified employing multiple methods. The results show that annual precipitation and actual evapotranspiration increased significantly during the impact period (2004-2014) (p < 0.05), at rates of 19.3 mm/a and 11 mm/a, respectively, and there was a minor upward trend in annual runoff, at a rate of 0.38 mm/a, while annual potential evapotranspiration decreased slightly at a rate of - 3.3 mm/a. Climate variables were the primary contributor to runoff decrease from 2004 to 2011, with an average contribution of - 79% according to the three methods. Human activities were estimated to account for - 81% of runoff change from 2012 to 2014, which was inextricably linked to the increasing LUCC. The results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management under the influence of climate change and human activities.

Automated summary

In this study, the authors analyzed the climate variables and hydrological factors in the Beiluo River Basin, China using geostatistical and trend analysis. They also assessed land use/cover change (LUCC) using chord diagrams and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results showed significant increases in annual precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, a minor upward trend in annual runoff, and a slight decrease in annual potential evapotranspiration. Climate variables were found to be the primary contributor to runoff decrease, while human activities, linked to increasing LUCC, accounted for runoff change in later years. This study provides a theoretical basis for regional water resource management under the influence of climate change and human activities.