The interplay of social constraints and individual variation in risk tolerance in the emergence of superspreaders

Individual host behaviours can drastically impact the spread of infection through a population. Differences in the value individuals place on both socializing with others and avoiding infection have been shown to yield emergent homophily in social networks and thereby shape epidemic outcomes. We build on this understanding to explore how individuals who do not conform to their social surroundings contribute to the propagation of infection during outbreaks. We show how non-conforming individuals, even if they do not directly expose a disproportionate number of other individuals themselves, can become functional superspreaders through an emergent social structure that positions them as the functional links by which infection jumps between otherwise separate communities. Our results can help estimate the potential success of real-world interventions that may be compromised by a small number of non-conformists if their impact is not anticipated, and plan for how best to mitigate their effects on intervention success.

Automated summary

Individual host behaviours have a significant impact on the spread of infection in populations. Differences in individuals' prioritization of socializing and avoiding infection lead to social homophily and affect epidemic outcomes. This study explores how individuals who do not conform to their social surroundings contribute to infection propagation during outbreaks. The findings demonstrate how non-conforming individuals can become functional superspreaders, facilitating infection transmission between separate communities. These results are important for estimating intervention success and planning strategies to mitigate the impact of non-conformists on interventions.