Reliability analysis of hybrid multi-carrier energy systems based on entropy-based Markov model

Various new technologies for conversion between different forms of energy promote the appearance of hybrid multicarrier energy system. For the purpose of optimized dispatch of multi-carrier energy and the security requirement of energy system, the reliability of this kind of energy system needs to be discussed. This article proposes a method based on entropy-based Markov model to analyze the reliability of hybrid multi-carrier energy system. First, the method to obtain the reliability of individual energy carrier is discussed. Second, the characteristic of entropy-based Markov model is analyzed. The method is shown to be an effective technique to obtain the reliability of the whole multi-carrier energy system depending on the reliability of individual energy carrier. Then, the fusion process to obtain the reliability of whole multi-carrier energy system is described. The result indicates that the reliability of the whole system is the reliability synthesized of individual energy supply and can be treated as a factor for the optimized process of multi-carrier energy dispatch. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by some examples.