Journal
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
Volume 52, Issue 7, Pages 5662-5675Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016WR018959
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Funding
- Regional Development Research Program - Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government [15RDRP-B076564-02]
- U.S. National Science Foundation [EAR-1360446]
- Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA) [79704] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
- Division Of Earth Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1360446] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Using a multicentury reconstruction of drought, we investigate how rare the 2012-2015 California drought is. A Bayesian approach to a nonstationary, bivariate probabilistic model, including the estimation of copula parameters is used to assess the time-varying return period of the current drought. Both the duration and severity of drought exhibit similar multicentury trends. The period from 800 to 1200 A.D. was perhaps more similar to the recent period than the period from 1200 to 1800 A.D. The median return period of the recent drought accounting for both duration and severity, varies from approximately 6672652 years, if the model parameters from the different time periods are considered. However, we find that the recent California drought is of unprecedented severity, especially given the relatively modest duration of the drought. The return period of the severity of the recent drought given its 4 year duration is estimated to be nearly 21,000 years.
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