Global warming-related tree growth decline and mortality on the north-eastern Tibetan plateau

Semi-arid forests at the limit of their existence close to the Gobi Desert in Inner Asia might be vulnerable to warming-induced drought stress. Yet, not much is known about the impact of global-change-type droughts on these forests. Here, we show that warming-related tree mortality is recently taking place in high-elevation semi-arid Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) forests of the north-eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (Qilian Mountains). Tree-ring samples were collected from 24 Qinghai spruce forest plots (20 m x 20 m) at three elevations (2600, 2700, 2800 m) along eight elevation transects on north-facing slopes. Three lines of evidence suggest that these forests are increasingly at risk of increased tree mortality as a consequence of global warming, (i) a strong precipitation and air humidity dependence of radial growth, (ii) increasing frequency of missing tree rings, and (iii) a rising tree mortality rate in recent decades. The recent drought episode on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau may represent a precursor of future global-change-type drought events in large parts of Inner Asia. Warming-related tree mortality of the semi-arid forests may be interpreted as early-warning signs for the densely populated artificial oases surrounding the Gobi Desert, which largely depend on river run-off from the mountain forests on the edge of the Tibetan Plateau.