Journal
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Volume 32, Issue 1, Pages 223-240Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1375-7
Keywords
Climate change; Human-induced impacts; Hydrologic sensitivity analysis; Multi-model combination technique; Multi-regression; Runoff simulation
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Funding
- Iraqi Government
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Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann-Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979-1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998-2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66-97% during 2003-2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4-34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Genie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied.
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