Journal
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
Volume 36, Issue 2, Pages 334-344Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/sim.7130
Keywords
incidence rate; mortality; prevalence; segmented polynomials; maximum likelihood estimation; model selection
Categories
Funding
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research from the National Institute of Allergy And Infectious Diseases [1P30AI094189]
- U.S. National Institute of Mental Health [U01MH066687, U01MH066688, U01MH066701, U01MH066702]
- Division of AIDS of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [U01AI068613/UM1A068613, U01AI068617/UM1AI068617, U01AI068619/UM1AI068619]
- Office of AIDS Research of the U.S. National Institutes of Health
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health
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The study considers the problem of estimating incidence of a non remissible infection (or disease) with possibly differential mortality using data from a(several) cross-sectional prevalence survey(s). Fitting segmented polynomial models is proposed to estimate the incidence as a function of age, using the maximum likelihood method. The approach allows automatic search for optimal position of knots, and model selection is performed using the Akaike information criterion. The method is applied to simulated data and to estimate HIV incidence among men in Zimbabwe using data from both the NIMH Project Accept (HPTN 043) and Zimbabwe Demographic Health Surveys (2005-2006). Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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