Journal
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
Volume 36, Issue 28, Pages 4514-4528Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/sim.7144
Keywords
repeat measures; cardiovascular risk prediction; joint models; C-index; regression calibration
Categories
Funding
- Medical Research Council [G0902100, MR/K014811/1]
- UK Medical Research Council [G0800270]
- British Heart Foundation [SP/09/002]
- UK National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre
- European Research Council [268834]
- European Commission Framework Programme 7 [HEALTH-F2-2012-279233]
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute [HHSN268201100005C, HHSN268201100006C, HHSN268201100007C, HHSN268201100008C, HHSN268201100009C, HHSN268201100010C, HHSN268201100011C, HHSN268201100012C]
- MRC [G0800270, MR/L003120/1, MR/K014811/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- British Heart Foundation [RG/08/014/24067, RG/13/13/30194] Funding Source: researchfish
- Medical Research Council [MR/K014811/1, MR/L501566/1, MR/L003120/1, G0800270] Funding Source: researchfish
- National Institute for Health Research [NF-SI-0512-10165] Funding Source: researchfish
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Many prediction models have been developed for the risk assessment and the prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care. Recent efforts have focused on improving the accuracy of these prediction models by adding novel biomarkers to a common set of baseline risk predictors. Few have considered incorporating repeated measures of the common risk predictors. Through application to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and simulations, we compare models that use simple summary measures of the repeat information on systolic blood pressure, such as (i) baseline only; (ii) last observation carried forward; and (iii) cumulative mean, against more complex methods that model the repeat information using (iv) ordinary regression calibration; (v) risk-set regression calibration; and (vi) joint longitudinal and survival models. In comparison with the baseline-only model, we observed modest improvements in discrimination and calibration using the cumulative mean of systolic blood pressure, but little further improvement from any of the complex methods. (c) 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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