Journal
RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
Volume 41, Issue 2, Pages 121-129Publisher
PLEIADES PUBLISHING INC
DOI: 10.3103/S1068373916020060
Keywords
Climate; forecast; severe events; storm wind waves
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Funding
- Russian Foundation for Basic Research [14-05-91769 AF_a, 13-05-00436-a]
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The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate.
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