Effects of climate change on four New England groundfish species

Multiple groundfish stocks in New England remain depleted despite management measures that have been effective elsewhere. A growing body of research suggests that environmental change driven by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and ocean is unfolding more rapidly in New England than elsewhere, and is an important factor in the failure of these stocks to respond to management. We reviewed research on effects of changes in temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and ocean currents on pelagic life stages, post-settlement life stages, and reproduction of four species in the New England groundfish fishery: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea). The volume of research on cod was nearly equal to that on the other three species combined. Similarly, many more studies examined effects of temperature than other factors. The majority of studies suggest adverse outcomes, with less evidence for mixed or positive effects. However, for all of the factors other than temperature, there are more knowledge gaps than known effects. Importantly, most work to date examines impacts in isolation, but effects might combine in nonlinear ways and cause stronger reductions in stock productivity than expected. Management strategies will need to account for known effects, nonlinear interactions, and uncertainties if fisheries in New England are to adapt to environmental change.