Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 113, Issue 12, Pages E1701-E1709Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1525578113
Keywords
evolution; antigenic distance; phylogenetic tree
Categories
Funding
- Medical Research Council [U117512723]
- ERC [Stg-260686]
- NIH [U54 GM111274]
- Simons Foundation [326844]
- University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society
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Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and reinfect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA), and amino acid substitutions at exposed epitope sites in HA mediate loss of recognition by antibodies. Here, we show that antigenic differences measured through serological assay data are well described by a sum of antigenic changes along the path connecting viruses in a phylogenetic tree. This mapping onto the tree allows prediction of antigenicity from HA sequence data alone. The mapping can further be used to make predictions about the makeup of the future A(H3N2) seasonal influenza virus population, and we compare predictions between models with serological and sequence data. To make timely model output readily available, we developed a web browser-based application that visualizes antigenic data on a continuously updated phylogeny.
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