Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 113, Issue 43, Pages 12071-12075Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1604386113
Keywords
Hurricane Sandy; storm surge; sea level rise; climate change; New York City
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [OCE-1313867, EAR-1520683]
- NSF [ARC-1203415, OCE-1458904]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) [NA14OAR4170085]
- New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium
- Community Foundation of New Jersey
- NOAA [NA11OAR4310101]
- International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia [639]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1440015] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Ocean Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1458904] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of similar to 3x from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further similar to 4.4x from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by similar to 3x to 17x from 2000 to 2100.
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