Differential impact of hotter drought on seedling performance of five ecologically distinct pine species

Increasing temperature and drought intensity is inducing the phenomenon of the so-called ``hotter drought'', which is expected to increase in frequency over the coming decades across many areas of the globe, and is expected to have major implications for forest systems. Consequences of hotter drought could be especially relevant for closely related species overlapping their distributions, since differences in response can translate into range shifts. We assessed the effect of future climatic conditions on the performance of five ecologically distinct pine species common in Europe: Pinus halepensis, P. pinaster, P. nigra, P. sylvestris and P. uncinata. We hypothesised that Mediterranean species inhabiting dry, low-elevation sites will be less affected by the expected warming and drought increase than species inhabiting cold-wet sites. We performed a controlled conditions experiment simulating current and projected temperature and precipitation, and analysed seedling responses in terms of survival, growth, biomass allocation, maximum photochemical efficiency (F-v/F-m) and plant water potential (Psi). Either an increase in temperature or a reduction in water input alone reduced seedling performance, but the highest impact occurred when these two factors acted in combination. Warming and water limitation reduced Psi, whereas warming alone reduced biomass allocation to roots and F-v/F-m. However, species responded differentially to warmer and drier conditions, with lowland Mediterranean pines (P. halepensis and P. pinaster) showing higher survival and performance than mountain species. Interspecific differences in response to warmer, drier conditions could contribute to changes in the relative dominance of these pine species in Mediterranean regions where they co-occur and a hotter, drier climate is anticipated.