4.6 Article

Estimating sales and sales market share from sales rank data for consumer appliances

Journal

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.030

Keywords

Sales rank; Log-normal distribution; Market average quantities; Price indices; Statistical model

Funding

  1. US Department of Energy under Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [DE-AC02-05CH11231]

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Our motivation in this work is to find an adequate probability distribution to fit sales volumes of different appliances. This distribution allows for the translation of sales rank into sales volume. This paper shows that the log-normal distribution and specifically the truncated version are well suited for this purpose. We demonstrate that using sales proxies derived from a calibrated truncated log-normal distribution function can be used to produce realistic estimates of market average product prices, and product attributes. We show that the market averages calculated with the sales proxies derived from the calibrated, truncated log-normal distribution provide better market average estimates than sales proxies estimated with simpler distribution functions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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