Journal
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Volume 32, Issue 5, Pages 577-584Publisher
SCIENCE PRESS
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-014-4143-y
Keywords
seasonal climate prediction; dynamic downscaling; summer precipitation; CCSM4; WRF
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Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41130103]
- special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) [GYHY201306026]
- National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scientists of China [41325018]
- National Basic Research Program of China [2010CB951901]
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To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer (June-July-August) of 1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0 (CCSM4.0) integrations were used to drive version 3.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF3.2) regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model, but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.
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