Journal
OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT
Volume 122, Issue -, Pages 87-94Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.01.006
Keywords
Coastal risk; Quantitative risk analysis; Risk management; Optimization; Risk decision making
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Funding
- Australian Government (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) via the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
- AXA Research fund
- Deltares Coastal Maintenance Research Programme 'Beheer & Onderhoud Kust'
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Climate change and the growth of coastal communities will significantly increase the socio-economic risks associated with coastline recession (i.e. the net long term landward movement of the coastline). Coastal setback lines are a commonly adopted management/planning tool to mitigate these risks. While it is widely recognized that planning decisions should be risk-informed, setback lines are presently determined using deterministic methods that cannot easily be related to considerations regarding the tolerability of risks. Here, we present a model for quantifying the risks posed by coastline recession and show how it can be used for deriving economically optimal setback lines. A demonstration at Narrabeen beach, Sydney, Australia illustrates that the proposed risk-informed approach to coastal zone management can significantly improve the transparency and efficiency of land-use planning decisions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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