Access to global wheat reserves determines country-level vulnerability to conflict-induced Ukrainian wheat supply disruption

Global wheat trade data for 2022 show substantial disparities in how different countries altered their trade network and diversified import sources in response to Ukrainian wheat shortages. The Russia-Ukraine conflict reduced global wheat supplies, yet the food security implications vary across countries. We identify a 39% decrease in Ukrainian wheat exports in 2022 resulting in >70% import losses in some of the countries most vulnerable to these disruptions, with substantial impacts felt in Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Mauritania, Yemen and Lebanon. Differential impacts are a function of access to capital and international trade, suggesting the need for policy measures to defuse the impending food crisis.

Automated summary

Global wheat trade data for 2022 reveals disparities in how countries responded to Ukrainian wheat shortages, with some countries experiencing significant import losses. The decrease in Ukrainian wheat exports led to over 70% import losses in vulnerable countries such as Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Mauritania, Yemen, and Lebanon. The differential impacts highlight the importance of access to capital and international trade, emphasizing the need for policy measures to prevent a food crisis.