Enhanced food system efficiency is the key to China's 2060 carbon neutrality target

Negative-emission technologies might pose trade-offs to food security and other land-based sustainability targets. A scenario analysis reveals the potential impacts of bioenergy deployment in China on global and domestic sustainable development, and how free trade and food systems efficiency measures could mitigate the potential adverse sustainability impacts. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, among other negative-emission technologies, is required for China to achieve carbon neutrality-yet it may hinder land-based Sustainable Development Goals. Using modelling and scenario analysis, we investigate how to mitigate the potential adverse impacts on the food system of ambitious bioenergy deployment in China and its trading partners. We find that producing bioenergy domestically while sticking to the food self-sufficiency ratio redlines would lower China's daily per capita calorie intake by 8% and increase domestic food prices by 23% by 2060. Removing China's food self-sufficiency ratio restrictions could halve the domestic food dilemma but risks transferring environmental burdens to other countries, whereas halving food loss and waste, shifting to healthier diets and narrowing crop yield gaps could effectively mitigate these external effects. Our results show that simultaneously achieving carbon neutrality, food security and global sustainability requires a careful combination of these measures.

Automated summary

Negative-emission technologies, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, may hinder land-based Sustainable Development Goals while being necessary for China's carbon neutrality. A scenario analysis reveals the potential impacts of bioenergy deployment in China and how measures like free trade and food system efficiency can mitigate sustainability concerns. Modelling shows that domestic bioenergy production with food self-sufficiency restrictions could decrease China's calorie intake and increase food prices, while removal of these restrictions or implementing measures like reducing food loss and waste and narrowing crop yield gaps can effectively mitigate these impacts.