Satellite forecasting of crop harvest can trigger a cross-hemispheric production response and improve global food security

Global food security is increasingly threatened by climate change and regional human conflicts. Abnormal fluctuations in crop production in major exporting countries can cause volatility in food prices and household consumption in importing countries. Here we show that timely forecasting of crop harvest from satellite data over major exporting regions can trigger production response in the opposite hemisphere to offset the short-term fluctuations and stabilize global food supply. Satellite forecasting can reduce the fluctuation extents of country-level prices by 1.1 to 12.5 percentage points for anticipated wheat shortage or surplus in Russia and Ukraine, and even reverse the price shock in importing countries for anticipated soybean shortage in Brazil. Our research demonstrates that by leveraging the seasonal lags in crop calendars between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, operational crop monitoring from satellite data can provide a mechanism to improve global food security. The forecast of crop harvests in important exporting regions can trigger production reactions in the other hemisphere to compensate for seasonal price fluctuations and help stabilize the agricultural market, according to an analysis of simulations of an economic model driven by remote sensing data.

Automated summary

Satellite forecasting of crop harvests in major exporting regions can trigger production reactions in the opposite hemisphere to offset short-term fluctuations and stabilize global food supply.