3.8 Article

Evaluation of the EsteR Toolkit for COVID-19 Decision Support: Sensitivity Analysis and Usability Study

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Article Biology

Estimate the incubation period of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)

Ke Men et al.

Summary: The incubation period of COVID-19 was estimated using case data, with an average of 5.84 days and a median of 5.01 days. There was a significant difference in incubation periods between different age groups, suggesting the need for separate quarantine and medical intervention strategies. The difference in incubation periods between males and females was not statistically significant.

COMPUTERS IN BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE (2023)

Article Infectious Diseases

Transmission and containment of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern in Guangzhou, China: A population-based study

Li Li et al.

Summary: This study describes the community transmission of the Delta variant in Guangzhou, China and evaluates the containment measures implemented during this outbreak. The results show that the hierarchical prevention and control strategy in Guangzhou was timely and effective, and vaccination played a positive role in reducing disease symptoms.

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control

Shunxiang Huang et al.

Summary: This study analyzed the characteristics of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on epidemiological information of non-Wuhan resident cases, finding that the incubation period approximately follows a Gamma distribution. It also revealed that the incubation period is positively correlated with age, negatively correlated with disease severity, and slightly longer in female cases, providing important insights for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH (2022)

Review Infectious Diseases

Comprehensive estimation for the length and dispersion of COVID-19 incubation period: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Yongyue Wei et al.

Summary: This study estimated the median and dispersion of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation period more precisely. The incubation period for asymptomatic transmissions was significantly longer. Additionally, for every 10-year increase in age, there was an average 16% increment in the length of the median incubation period.

INFECTION (2022)

Review Virology

Estimation of the COVID-19 mean incubation time: Systematic review, meta-analysis, and sensitivity analysis

Yijia Weng et al.

Summary: Providing sensible estimates of the mean incubation time for COVID-19 is important yet complex. This study aims to provide synthetic estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 by capitalizing on available estimates reported in the literature and exploring different ways to accommodate heterogeneity involved in the reported studies. The study finds that the reported estimates of the mean incubation time of COVID-19 vary considerably due to multiple reasons, including heterogeneity and publication bias. Our analyses show that the mean incubation time of COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and May 20, 2021 ranges from 5.68 to 8.30 days.

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY (2022)

Article Computer Science, Information Systems

Understanding Dynamics of Pandemic Models to Support Predictions of COVID-19 Transmission: Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of SIR-Type Models

Chunfeng Ma et al.

Summary: This study applies sensitivity analysis to investigate the parameters and initial state variables in the COVID-19 transmission models. The research finds that community size has a significant impact on the maximum number of actively infected cases and the peak date. The protection rate and average quarantined time show high sensitivities to the infected populations, suggesting the importance of implementing protection and isolation measures early on.

IEEE JOURNAL OF BIOMEDICAL AND HEALTH INFORMATICS (2022)

Letter Immunology

Serial Intervals and Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant, South Korea, 2021

Jin Su Song et al.

Summary: To understand the transmissibility of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, this study investigated the serial intervals and secondary attack rates among household contacts in South Korea. The findings showed a mean serial interval of 2.9 days for transmission pairs and a secondary attack rate of 50.0% among 25 households, raising concerns about a rapid increase in cases.

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2022)

Article Biology

Estimation of incubation period and generation time based on observed length-biased epidemic cohort with censoring for COVID-19 outbreak in China

Yuhao Deng et al.

Summary: This study focused on the analysis of the incubation period and generation time, proposing a consistent estimator for the distribution of generation time based on the incubation period and serial interval, suitable for incubation-infectious diseases. The real case application to COVID-19 outbreak revealed a median incubation period of 8.50 days and an estimated basic reproduction number of 2.96 in the early phase.

BIOMETRICS (2021)

Article Infectious Diseases

Evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

Xiang Ren et al.

Summary: The study investigated the earliest COVID-19 cases detected outside Hubei province to make inferences about transmission dynamics and infection severity. The majority of transmissions occur around illness onset in infected individuals, and pre-symptomatic transmission plays a role. Secondary cases in clusters tend to have less severe illness than primary cases.

INFLUENZA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES (2021)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Examining geographical disparities in the incubation period of the COVID-19 infected cases in Shenzhen and Hefei, China

Zuopeng Xiao et al.

Summary: The study revealed geographical disparities in the incubation period of COVID-19 in Shenzhen and Hefei, with significant differences in median incubation periods potentially associated with meteorological conditions.

ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE (2021)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Characteristics and evaluation of the effectiveness of monitoring and control measures for the first 69 Patients with COVID-19 from 18 January 2020 to 2 March in Wuxi, China

Ping Shi et al.

Summary: By analyzing data from 69 COVID-19 infections in Wuxi, it was found that most cases had mild clinical symptoms, with aging and fever being identified as risk factors for disease severity. The incidence of COVID-19 in Wuxi has decreased, indicating the effectiveness of early prevention and control measures.

SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY (2021)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Serial Interval and Generation Interval for Imported and Local Infectors, Respectively, Estimated Using Reported Contact-Tracing Data of COVID-19 in China

Menghui Li et al.

Summary: COVID-19 transmission chains in China were analyzed to estimate the serial interval (SI) and generation interval (GI), showing a decrease in both SI and GI as the generation increases. The study categorized transmission events into subsets based on imported and local cases, highlighting the impact of different reproduction numbers on the spread of the virus. A Bayesian approach was used to fit the distribution function of SI and GI, indicating the trend of decreasing intervals with increasing generations.

FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH (2021)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Epidemiology and transmission characteristics of early COVID-19 cases, 20 January-19 March 2020, in Bavaria, Germany

S. Boehm et al.

Summary: The study described the epidemiology and transmission characteristics of early COVID-19 cases in Bavaria, Germany from January 20 to March 19, 2020. A large proportion of cases were exposed abroad, leading to further local transmission. The median incubation period and serial interval were estimated to be 3.8 days and 3.5 days, respectively.

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION (2021)

Article Medicine, General & Internal

Transmission dynamics and successful control measures of SARS-CoV-2 in the mega-size city of Guangzhou, China

Hongjun Zhao et al.

Summary: The study evaluated the effectiveness of public health interventions in Guangzhou during the COVID-19 pandemic, with different phases showing varying success rates in controlling the spread of the virus. The results showed that measures like close contact quarantine, extensive testing, and social distancing were crucial in controlling the outbreak in Guangzhou.

MEDICINE (2021)

Article Infectious Diseases

The incubation period of COVID-19: A meta-analysis

Christelle Elias et al.

Summary: A systematic review of 99 studies found that the average incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be 6.38 days. This study helps in identifying the incubation period and exploring potential links between its variability and clinical outcomes or pathogenic processes in the early stages of infection.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2021)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China

Shixiong Hu et al.

Summary: The study found that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 mainly occurs during the pre-symptomatic phase, with susceptibility to infection increasing with age. However, transmissibility does not significantly differ between age groups or symptomatic states.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Subcritical Transmission in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in Korea

Yong Sul Won et al.

Summary: The study analyzed the first 28 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea from January 20 to February 10, 2020, and found that imported cases had more secondary transmissions while locally transmitted cases had shorter reporting delays. Contact tracing of imported cases was effective in reducing further transmissions, helping to keep the basic reproduction number (R0) below one and limiting the overall spread of the virus.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH (2021)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Sensitivity analysis of the infection transmissibility in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Pardis Biglarbeigi et al.

Summary: The study focuses on sensitivity analysis of infection transmission in the UK, finding that if more than 38.5% of the working-age population return to normal working environment, the reproduction number is expected to be higher than 1. Analysis of each nation separately shows differences in local reproduction numbers, requiring more thorough analysis.

PEERJ (2021)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

The estimations of the COVID-19 incubation period: A scoping reviews of the literature

Nazar Zaki et al.

Summary: A review of studies estimating the incubation period of COVID-19 shows that the majority suggest an average of 7.8 days with a median of 5.01 days, aligning with the ranges proposed by the WHO and ECDC. Some authors recommend a minimum quarantine time of 14 days and consider a median time delay of 13 days between illness and mortality for estimating mortality risks. The correlation between patients' ages and the length of virus incubation remains unclear.

JOURNAL OF INFECTION AND PUBLIC HEALTH (2021)

Article Materials Science, Multidisciplinary

Sensitivity analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 dynamics based on SEIQR model

Takasar Hussain et al.

Summary: The SEIQR model has been used to predict the number of COVID-19 cases and the potential development of the epidemic based on data from the onset of the outbreak, as well as providing recommendations for precautionary restrictions that could be implemented in the future.

RESULTS IN PHYSICS (2021)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Evolving Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong From January to August 2020: Retrospective Study

Kin On Kwok et al.

Summary: This study characterized the epidemiology of the first two epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, revealing changes in asymptomatic case proportions and peak R-t values. The findings indicated that interventions and cluster involvement affected containment delays, while serial intervals decreased over time and were influenced by mobility. The study emphasized the importance of vigilance against COVID-19 and suggested the need to consider temporal variations in epidemiological parameters for outbreak control.

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH (2021)

Article Infectious Diseases

Epidemiologic Characteristics of COVID-19 in Guizhou Province, China

Kaike Ping et al.

Summary: The study investigated the epidemiologic characteristics of COVID-19 in Guizhou province, revealing an incubation period of 6.04 days and a serial interval of 6.14 +/- 2.21 days. The effectiveness of control measures was discussed based on the declining instantaneous effective reproduction number. Significant progress was made in preventing the spread of the epidemic in Guizhou province through medical isolation and timely identification of asymptomatic carriers and super-spreaders.

JOURNAL OF INFECTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (2021)

Review Immunology

The Incubation Period Distribution of Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Hualei Xin et al.

Summary: The study found that the pooled median estimates of the mean, median, and 95th percentile for the incubation period of COVID-19 are 6.3 days, 5.4 days, and 13.1 days respectively. The estimates were significantly shorter before the epidemic peak in China compared to after, and variances were noticed for different methodological approaches.

CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2021)

Article Infectious Diseases

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational institutions, August to December 2020, Germany

Anja Schoeps et al.

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION (2021)

Article Infectious Diseases

Association of public health interventions and COVID-19 incidence in Vietnam, January to December 2020

Ha-Linh Quach et al.

Summary: The study found that early, strict, and consistently implemented public health interventions were crucial in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam. The effective reproductive number (Rt) decreased to below 1 during periods of strict border control and contact tracing, but increased ahead of new clusters.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2021)

Article Immunology

Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019

Yiu Chung Lau et al.

Summary: This study jointly estimated the generation time and incubation period of COVID-19 from human-to-human transmission pairs in China, providing insights into the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number. The results showed an estimated mean incubation period of 4.8 days, mean generation time of 5.7 days, and an estimated R-0 of 2.2. The study highlighted the importance of proper data collection processes and timing in obtaining accurate epidemiological estimates.

JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2021)

Article Infectious Diseases

Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data

Shi Zhao et al.

Summary: This study estimated the generation interval and incubation period of COVID-19 using contact tracing data, finding that approximately half of the secondary infections may be due to pre-symptomatic transmission, emphasizing the importance of isolation for both symptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases.

EPIDEMICS (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

A Statistical Model to Assess Risk for Supporting COVID-19 Quarantine Decisions

Sonja Jaeckle et al.

Summary: Local health departments in Germany are responsible for monitoring the current pandemic situation, including tracking infected individuals and their direct contacts. This study presents a statistical model based on negative test results to assess the probability of COVID-19 transmission, aiming to support quarantine decisions that balance containment measures with social and economic considerations. Future work will focus on refining and evaluating quarantine decisions using this statistical model.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH (2021)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases among Indians residing in Kuwait

Jagan Kumar Baskaradoss et al.

Summary: The study analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 patients and contacts among the Indian community in Kuwait. The results showed that asymptomatic patients were older, most patients lived in shared accommodation, close contacts were primarily household members, and healthcare workers had the highest proportion of cases.

EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN HEALTH JOURNAL (2021)

Article Immunology

SARS-CoV-2 Serial Interval Variation, Montana, USA, March 1-July 31, 2020

Isaiah G. Reed et al.

Summary: The mean serial interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Montana, USA was estimated to be 5.68 days, with a standard deviation of 4.77 days. The estimates varied temporally based on the type of nonpharmaceutical interventions and fluctuating incidence.

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2021)

Article Immunology

COVID-19 Outbreak in a Large Penitentiary Complex, April-June 2020, Brazil

Fernando A. Gouvea-Reis et al.

Summary: An outbreak of coronavirus in a large penitentiary complex in Brazil resulted in 1,057 confirmed cases and 3 deaths by June 12, 2020. The mean serial interval was approximately 2.5 days, with a reproduction number range of 1.0-2.3.

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2021)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Epidemic Landscape and Forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in India

Aravind Lathika Rajendrakumar et al.

Summary: The study suggests that the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in India indicates community transmission, calling for increased funding for infectious disease research and epidemiological studies. According to the model predictions, the peak of the epidemic in India may occur around mid-July to early August 2020, with approximately 12.5% of the population likely to be infected at that time.

JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GLOBAL HEALTH (2021)

Article Infectious Diseases

Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections

Hiroshi Nishiura et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2020)

Article Medicine, General & Internal

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia

Qun Li et al.

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE (2020)

Article Immunology

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhuhai, China, 2020

Jian Wu et al.

CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2020)

Article Respiratory System

Nosocomial outbreak of COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, China

Xiaorong Wang et al.

EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY JOURNAL (2020)

Article Infectious Diseases

Examining the incubation period distributions of COVID-19 on Chinese patients with different travel histories

Zuopeng Xiao et al.

JOURNAL OF INFECTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (2020)

Article Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

Xi He et al.

NATURE MEDICINE (2020)

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

A model based study on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and control

Manotosh Mandal et al.

CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS (2020)

Article Infectious Diseases

Statistical and network analysis of 1212 COVID-19 patients in Henan, China

Pei Wang et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2020)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Probable Longer Incubation Period for Elderly COVID-19 Cases: Analysis of 180 Contact Tracing Data in Hubei Province, China

Jingyi Dai et al.

RISK MANAGEMENT AND HEALTHCARE POLICY (2020)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Epidemiological Investigation of the First 135 COVID-19 Cases in Brunei: Implications for Surveillance, Control, and Travel Restrictions

Justin Wong et al.

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE (2020)

Article Medicine, Research & Experimental

Association between incubation period and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19

Yeyu Cai et al.

JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MEDICAL RESEARCH (2020)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19: Case Series Study

Shujuan Ma et al.

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH (2020)

Letter Medicine, General & Internal

Case Numbers Beyond Contact Tracing Capacity Are Endangering the Containment of COVID-19

Matthias Linden et al.

DEUTSCHES ARZTEBLATT INTERNATIONAL (2020)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study

Suman Saurabh et al.

JMIR PUBLIC HEALTH AND SURVEILLANCE (2020)

Article Infectious Diseases

Serial interval and time-varying reproduction number estimation for COVID-19 in western Iran

F. Najafi et al.

NEW MICROBES AND NEW INFECTIONS (2020)

Article Immunology

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Different Settings, Brunei

Liling Chaw et al.

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2020)

Article Medicine, General & Internal

Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 Outbreak at Fitness Centers in Cheonan, Korea

Sanghyuk Bae et al.

JOURNAL OF KOREAN MEDICAL SCIENCE (2020)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Epidemiologic characteristics of early cases with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) disease in Korea

Moran Ki

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND HEALTH (2020)

Article Computer Science, Information Systems

Towards an Artificial Intelligence Framework for Data-Driven Prediction of Coronavirus Clinical Severity

Xiangao Jiang et al.

CMC-COMPUTERS MATERIALS & CONTINUA (2020)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Epidemiological characteristics of and containment measures for COVID-19 in Busan, Korea

Hyunjin Son et al.

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND HEALTH (2020)

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

Employing a user-centered cognitive walkthrough to evaluate a mHealth diabetes self-management application: A case study and beginning method validation

Mattias Georgsson et al.

JOURNAL OF BIOMEDICAL INFORMATICS (2019)

Article Medical Informatics

Development of a prototype clinical decision support tool for osteoporosis disease management: a qualitative study of focus groups

Monika Kastner et al.

BMC MEDICAL INFORMATICS AND DECISION MAKING (2010)

Article Medicine, General & Internal

General practitioners' perceptions of the pharmaceutical decision-support tools in their prescribing software

MD Ahearn et al.

MEDICAL JOURNAL OF AUSTRALIA (2003)